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Bloomberg's Amy Thompson has given us a glimpse of what Rodman & Renshaw, LLC believes is going to happen to iPad sales this Christmas quarter; fall short of estimates by a wide margin.

Rodman & Renshaw's analyst Ashok Kumar believes the estimates of 6 million iPads being sold this quarter is out of line and may run as few as 5 million. 

Kumar believing Apple will only sell 900k more in iPads world-wide during the Holiday season is what seems out of line. With more markets and retail outlets stocked up and ready to sell iPads this quarter, one would think Mr. Kumar has some logical reasoning behind his thinking.

As it turns out, logical thinking and group think are one in the same to Mr. Kumar.

"Tablet computers, which let customers watch videos and read digital magazines and books, are still a “tweener” niche with limited capabilities that might prevent consumers from adopting the technology as quickly as some industry analysts had forecast," Kumar said. "Samsung Electronics Co. is cutting its planned production by about 50 percent for the Galaxy after poor sales" as Kumar cited discussions with suppliers.

“It’s a nice-to-have product, for those of us who don’t have a budget, but is it a must-have product? I don’t think so,” said New York-based Kumar.

So Kumar believes iPad sales will fail market expectations due to a failing Samsung Galaxy Tab launch. Brilliant analysis...

I have some sad news for Ashok, this isn't how it's going to work out. Well, for the Galaxy Tab, yes, it will fail and evidently already is. But associating a failing product in the Galaxy Tab and tying it to the success or failure of the iPad is an example of analyst group think mentality.

It would probably be more accurate for Mr. Kumar to surmise that the Galaxy Tab won't sell because it has a small 7" screen, costs more than an iPad, and runs a phone OS which the maker (Google) recommends vendors not install on tablet-like devices and is tied in with carriers.

Kumar would be better served to also explain why the iPad will be a runaway hit, as it's 9.7" delivers is tops in the industry, has class leading battery life, uses best-in class materials, sports an OS built for a tablet, runs tens of thousands of native apps, and has the lowest price in it's category.

There is much more group think here, but really, it's pretty much a predictable diatribe which Apple will prove false once their quarterly financial results arrive in mid-January.

3 Comments

1. lrd ~ November 12, 2010 23:38
   Blah, blah, blah. No hope for any Android tablets and so some Bloomberg idiot decides to take it out on Apple. That's the problem with the market these days- too many speculators.
2. iphonerulez ~ November 13, 2010 06:16
   He is either a very ignorant ass-hat or a very manipulating ass-hat. I'll bet he based his low iPad sales figures on the 50% production cut of the Samsung Galaxy Tab. I predict that while most retailers will have miserable Christmas, consumers will be saving their money for Apple iDevices, including the iPad. Is this fanboi raving? Yes. But it will also be a fact. You wait and see on Black Friday.
3. Shock Me ~ November 13, 2010 09:00
   Perhaps the Galaxy tab is failing because it is exactly what critics called the iPad: a big phone. I'm sure Samsung can take another run at this when Android is ready for tablets. In any case, aren't they really saying that some other analysts numbers simply had no basis in reality? If Apple sells as many iPads as it can make what is the problem?

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