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I remember back when I was in college having to log into a workstation or a mainframe through a dummy terminal. Mainframes and workstations dominated the computer industry and were big and expensive. If you wanted to use a computer, you had to use one of these. By the time I graduated, that had all changed. Personal Computers were cheap enough to not only fill a computer lab, but also for students to even own one. Intel and the x86 processor helped to start this computer revolution. The x86 processor brought computers down to an affordable level. The personal computer was much slower than a mainframe or workstation, but they were also much cheaper and fast enough to do the basic things. The personal computer (or PC) began to dominate over these more expensive mainframes and workstations. You can still buy Mainframes today and they are still much faster than personal computers, but they are only used where they need that extra processing power. Intel has come to dominate the personal computer market for processors. Apple used to use the PowerPC chip, but recently move to Intel due to lack of performance with the PowerPC. AMD still makes a drop in replacement for Intel's x86 chip, but most computers still come with an Intel chip inside. The prices for their chips range from as little as $100 all the way up to almost $900 per chip. That is nothing compared to mainframes which start out around $400K.

You may be wondering why I am taking this trip down memory lane. Well, history is about to repeat itself with a new player — who is not really all that new — ARM. ARM originally stood for Acorn RISC Machine. ARM processors are used in all kinds of imbedded devices from smart phones to digital video recorders or DVRs. Acorn Computer Ltd started making the ARM processors back in 1983. Apple got involved with the ARM chip back in the 1980s and Acorn spun off their partnered project into another company called Advanced RISC Machines Ltd. Apple then used these new ARM chips in the Apple Newton PDA, the first real mobile computer. Later, the company changed the name to ARM Ltd. ARM began licensing their chip in the early 2000's. The ARM chips have continued to be developed over the years, getting more powerful, yet still are very power efficient.

Last year, Apple made a bold move by taking the ARM chip design and modifying the design before putting it into all of their mobile iOS devices. The big advantage for ARM is that you can pay a license fee and you can customize it all you want. You can not do that with Intel. Apple can modify the chip to save even more power. This marked a big change for Apple, as they are now designing their own chips. Apple sees the writing on the wall and knows that the future of mobile computers and even computers in general lies with ARM. Just like with the relationship between PC and mainframes, ARM will never be more powerful than the Intel x86 chip. However, ARM has the advantage in cost and power consumption. An ARM chip typically costs less than $10 USD and the $0.11 USD licensing fee is included. An ARM chip also consumes less than a watt of power, which is much less than the typical Intel x86 at 25 watts.

Why is ARM Surging in Popularity Now?

The ARM chip is becoming fast enough for 80% of the work people do today. ARM is now catching up to a typical desktop from 8 years ago. Back then, personal computers were plenty fast for most work. ARM may not catch up to Intel of today, but it does not need to, it will soon have plenty of power for the average user.

ARM is starting another computer revolution with the mobile computer. Apple is leading this revolution with its iOS. The iOS is a mobile computer platform designed around a less powerful, but much cheaper mobile chip. Apple has taken all the legacy software and hardware out to create a lean and mean mobile operating system. In the next five years, the ARM/iOS type mobile computer will begin to dominate the computer world. It will not replace the more powerful desktop computer, but it will make them less influential. As Steve Job puts it, the Mac is a truck, and the iOS is a car. When you need a truck, you need a truck, but most people drive cars. The first computer explosion started when the personal computer was developed, marketed and sold to the average Joe. Now, we will see another explosion as the mobile computers are being developed, marketed, and used by almost everyone. Instead of buying one per household like the PC, we will be buying one or more per person.

Don't jump to thinking it is perfect. The iOS is still an immature OS and there is still a lot of work that needs to be done to create a full mobile platform. One of those big items left is the Finder, but I will save that for another article. As Apple and other companies continue to develop their mobile platforms, we will start to see people replacing old desktop computers with new mobile computers. Right now, the mobile hardware mainly includes smart phones and tablets, but it won't stay that way. Apple is not tying the iOS to the ARM not the touch screen. The iOS is built with a small footprint to run fast on these smaller more efficient processors. Creating a new platform specifically designed for this mobile computer is the key to success. This new platform has to include not only the operating system, but also the applications that run on it. Everything needs to be designed to run most efficiently. Apple will continue to develop new hardware for these new mobile computers. We may even see a macbook air type laptop running the iOS with a ARM chip inside. Whichever direction Apple decides to take the hardware for the iOS, one thing we know for sure, it will magically transform the way we use technology.

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