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Microsoft has been the golden child of the tech industry for a long time. And while there is no need to deeply rehash the last 30 years (we've all lived it or read about it ad nauseam), here is a quick recap before covering what's in store for Microsoft this decade:

MICROSOFT's HISTORY

• 1980's: DOS/PC revolution
• 1990's: Windows and Office revolution
• 2000's: Microsoft has no revolution
• 2010's: Microsoft cannot make up lost ground. The rest of the tech industry moves on.

MICROSOFT's FUTURE

• Desktop software continues to take a back seat to mobile solutions.
• Microsoft delivers Windows Phone 7, a product that holds no relevance in the marketplace. Win Phone 7 fails. Consider it the Kin III.
• Consumer and business mobile device markets continue to explode. Microsoft cannot keep up with Apple, Google, RIM and HP.
• IE continues to have it's market-share eroded, falling below 50% by 2015 with a sub 5% in mobile share. Silverlight becomes irrelevant in the face of HTML 5 and mobile apps.
• Microsoft is relegated to server and .net database solutions.
• Microsoft becomes the new IBM. A silent company working in the background of corporations and backbones, nothing more.

The year 2011 is looming over Redmond and tablets are poised for explosive sales. Whether you buy into Piper Jaffray's 40 million 2011 tablet shipment figure (23.2 million million of them iPads), or Gartner's rosy looking 54.4 million figure, the point is well made - 2011 is the year of the tablet and Microsoft is nowhere to be found. Unlike iPods and iPhones, tablets will make a profound impact on Microsoft's Windows stronghold.

Analysts are still trying to get a handle on just how many netbook and notebook PC's iPads are consuming, but it is happening. Whether it's Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn stating, then restating, iPads have eaten up 50% of their netbook sales, or Microsoft's GM of Windows, Gavriella Shuckster, admitting iPads are nibbling away Windows sales, it's an attack Microsoft has no remedy for any time soon. In the tech industry momentum is king, and Microsoft has none of it.

It was nearly a year ago Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer stolled on stage at CES and waved around a prototype HP tablet. Steve appeared to have very little interest in the device, no idea how it worked, or when these types of products would arrive to market. In nearly a year what's changed? Microsoft is likely to stroll out more Windows prototype tablets at this year's CES, while Google shows their latest "coming soon" Honeycomb Android OS for tablets. Meanwhile, Apple will hold their own Special Event, delivering shipping product guaranteed to continue eating away at Windows market share month by month, year by year. The Windows franchise and it's Office ecosystem has never been tested like this before and the financial impact on Microsoft will be profound.

Hope will continue to spring eternal for Apple and others in the coming years, but the second decade of the 21st century will not be kind to Microsoft. I think I can hear Bill Paxton in Aliens right now... "Game over man. Game over!"

2 Comments

1. Viswakarma ~ December 8, 2010 03:59
   Microsoft is a dead dinosaur that will take sometime to cool and decay!!!
2. E. Werner Reschke ~ December 8, 2010 06:57
   LOL! That's a great way to put it Viswakarma

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