Apple News, Analysis and Podcasts

Piper Jaffray is Dead On - But How?

January 4, 2011 15:38 by: Mark Reschke   0 Comments

Categories: News , Predictions

Tagged: Analysts , Predictions

According to Fortune, this past Thursday Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray released a research note on Apple, Inc.

In the release, Munster delivers a 2011 Apple roadmap that made us sit up and take notice. It wasn't just one or two ideas that were mentioned — but virtually all of them. Some of these predictions just seemed a bit too close to home for us to ignore. It brings to mind how, and where, Piper Jaffray (and perhaps other analysts) acquire their information? Let's take a closer look at Piper's predictions:

Prediction T-GAAP/Others Piper Jaffray
Launch of a Verizon iPhone before the end of March. WSJ
Oct. 7, 2010
Piper Jaffrey
Jan. 3, 2011
Carrier subsidies for the iPad. T-GAAP
Nov. 30, 2010
Piper Jaffrey
Jan. 3, 2011
iPad 2 coming in the Spring T-GAAP
Nov. 30, 2010
Piper Jaffrey
Jan. 3, 2011
MacBook Pro's coming in the first half of the year T-GAAP
Nov. 24, 2010
Piper Jaffrey
Jan. 3, 2011
An Apple HDTV in 2012 T-GAAP
Dec. 29, 2010 

Piper JaffreyJ 3, 2011

See a pattern? It seems Gene is a bit late to the table with predictions that are close to T-GAAP's or any number Apple bloggers, such as Jonny Evans of Computerworld. Last we checked, Gene Munster follows 21 companies, and T-GAAP follows one — Apple (keeping tabs on the competition of course).

This begs the question as to why analysts are revered as an Oracle from on high, yet are bringing almost nothing new to the table? Munster and others are beginning to look like aggregators, delivering vanilla reports of richer information found elsewhere on the web.

Who should we take more seriously? Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt delivered a great overview of who's better at nailing Apple's financials. Nine of the top 13 spots were held by amateurs in predicting Apple's revenues and earnings per share. That's right, amateurs, who are not investing other's money, just following Apple closely and making calls, and doing a better job at it than the professionals. Boy, that sounds familiar...

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