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Now that Microsoft has successfully inked a deal with Nokia, MeeGo and Symbian are all but dead, leaving Nokia with a new master from Redmond, Washington. Both Nokia and Microsoft needed this deal regardless of the costs, as it delivers Nokia a partner in the OS world and Microsoft a level of credibility in the smart phone market place.

Microsoft's never been good at competing against opponents of equal weight. Rather, Microsoft's typical game is to bully their way into a market over time by outspending the competition. But this business model is expensive as seen in their entertainment division, and it failed with their Windows CE, Plays for Sure and HD-DVD initiatives. When Microsoft is standing toe-to-toe with other giants, we don't suggest placing your bets on Mr. Softie.

Today’s gorillas are Apple, Google, Sony, Oracle, and now in Microsoft's way, HP. Each player comes at Microsoft from various angles, therefore the Windows and Office empire are, for perhaps the first time in 20+ years, truly threatened. Make no mistake, when Windows and Office are in danger, it means Microsoft's entire empire could crumble.

But in the world of mobile devices, Microsoft's best play is consolidation. Microsoft thrives when choice is eliminated. If Microsoft is one of the few options remaining, enough people will purchase Microsoft products to keep them alive in the mobile market. When there were only three big automakers in the US, they were viewed as powerhouses, with quality products. But then the 1970's come along, gas prices soar — who knew these companies were fat with success and couldn't deliver a small four cylinder car to compete with the Japanese (yes, Microsoft is the big-3 of the tech world)?

Microsoft does not want to be exposed against completion, because when they are, there are usually better choices to be found. In the spirit of eliminating competition, Microsoft's next logical move is to buy-out RIMM Corporation. RIMM has over 30 million Blackberry business users, and that is a user base that cannot be easily overthrown. With Playbook coming, customers that buy into a vertical Blackberry/Playbook solution move further away from Microsoft's Windows and Office cash cows. With Nokia onboard, and RIMM eliminated from the market, the mobile space consolidates down to Windows Phone 7, iOS, Android, and on yeah, HP.

The dark-horse in the mix is Hewlett-Packard, with their new webOS assault. If HP has the willpower to make webOS their next platform (regardless of the pain involved in doing so), Microsoft will have three major players it can't buyout or simply bully out of the market. We recently posted a bracket countering HP's fictional charts, and while nothing plays out exactly as planned, we see Microsoft hanging around for the consolidation, consolation prize. In a few short years, Apple, HP and Google will claim the lion's share of the mobile market. Microsoft is going to be forced to compete in this mobile space, and until they radically change their leadership, culture and the way they approach the marketplace, their return will — at best — leave them well behind the pack.

2 Comments

1. lrd ~ February 11, 2011 23:57
   Yep. It's the world against Apple. Today it's Microsoft teaming up with Nokia. Yesterday it was Google teaming up with Motorola. And Apple just keeps having record quarter after record quarter. $26 Billion in revenues last quarter. $6 Billion in profits. Poor Apple- all these poorly managed and poorly focused enemies are just piling up the cash for this poor company. Too bad Google had to fork their OS and where is that XOOM tablet? If I hear about one more Google demo of Honeycomb, I'm going puke. And how long will it take Nokia to shift to WIndows 7 Mobile? Wait, did they say they're going with W7 Mobile. Oh well, might as well post a going out of business sign in front of their HQ. How long is it going to take Microsoft to port Windows to the arm processor- a year? Poor Apple; the soon to be trillion dollar company. It could use a few more enemies.
2. MikeInTN ~ February 12, 2011 06:53
   I see Google, Apple, and Microsoft as the big three. I think eventually Microsoft will take over the enterprise giving it a firm #3 standing behind Google and Apple. Microsoft has the legions of corporate Visual Studio and .Net developers ready to bring internal enterprise applications to the windows phone 7 platform. Google has the multitudes of hardware manufactures and the "open" platform. I just don't see what HP brings to the table. HP is simply going to try and out apple Apple. Why have the copy when you could have the original?

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