Apple News, Analysis and Podcasts

If you own Apple (AAPL) stock or are considering doing so, but are not sure when's a good time to get in, this video is a must-see. Michael Holland isn't flashy, nor does he bring anything revolutionary to the table, but his sticking point is AAPL valuation is incredibly low and it can't stay there forever.

AAPL closed the market Wednesday at $326.75 with a intraday market cap of only $302.16b. AAPL is also carrying a forward looking P/E ratio of only 11. These figures for AAPL are starting to become a fixture to the stock, and they are absurdly low. What is Apple going to bring to the earnings table next quarter? There are some sparks out in the analyst world that suggest it will be another above and beyond quarter, but will another strong quarter push Apple's stock price north or leave it in purgatory?

Brian White, and Analyst with Ticonderoga Securities issued an update this month, stating Apple's supply chain orders were up 87 percent year-over-year for the month of May. White also found Apple's orders up 100 percent for the month of April, according to AppleInsider.

Another bright spot for Apple is likely to be in iPad shipment. Apple's Q3 of 2010 saw 3.27 million units sold. Some spin taking place in the financial markets is that last year Apple saw great growth in iPads year-over-year based on it being a new product entry, thus growth can't be as robust for iPad in 2011. But by my estimates, Apple appears set to ship nearly 8 million iPads for the June quarter. Apple could very well reach 150% year-over-year growth in iPad sales for the June quarter, and the ASP looks to be even higher, as 3G models appear to be selling at an ever fast clip (according to Ming-Chi Kuo of Concord Securities), reported by AppleInsider. Simply put, Apples iPad year-over-year growth, coupled with stronger ASP, is highly likely to blow away the gains iPad saw in last years 2010 June quarter.

However, there are some scare factors involved in Apple's stock price. Steve Jobs health, an explosion at a Foxconn iPad production facility and a recent recall of some 3G Verizon iPad models have left some investors skittish in the short-term. But these issues seem highly overblown, serving as fear vs rational thought:

• Jobs health appears built into AAPL stock price already.
• Foxconn's iPad facility came back online within two-weeks of being out of service. The impact may be only 250k iPad units for the quarter.
• 3G Verizon iPad models that were recalled appear to be a handful of units, even though it made big headlines.
• Tim Cook made mention several times in Apple's Q2 financial conference call that Apple was set to produce a lot of iPad this quarter. Cook could not be cornered on a specific figure, but he was clear to stress Apple would be making a lot of iPads (perhaps 8 million units or more?).

Every other sector of Apple's business appears to be on a cruise control system set to strong and constant growth. None of this means Apple's stock price will skyrocket any time soon, but Greece, the US debt ceiling, or any other world crisis notwithstanding, here's one guy that sees blue skies ahead for AAPL, with a Q3 that is likely to kickstart Apple's stock price.

Full Disclosure:  Mark Reschke is not a financial advisor, and does not give any financial advice. Mark Reschke owns Apple stock.

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