Apple News, Analysis and Podcasts

The latest numbers by Charlie Wolf of Needham & Associates indicates that Android's market share is flattening out, and/or perhaps poised to fall over the coming quarters, due to increased competition from the likes of Apple and other forthcoming competition.  Wolf's assertions also fall in line with NPD's latest market share reports, adding further fuel to the fire that Android is getting the squeeze. 

Today, Google's Andy Rubin Tweeted that Android is seeing an average of 500,000 activations per day. First of all, what exactly does Google consider an activation? Is an Android activation an LG refrigerator with Android built-in for touch-screen control? Is an Android activation millions of China Mobile smart phones that have a core Android OS in them, but everything else Google stripped out of them?

My guess is there is no hard and fast rule as to what Google is counting as an activation, and seriously, what does it matter if Android is being loaded onto a stopwatches that see the sock drawer in a weeks time after being given as a stocking stuffer? Google seems rattled about their market share stall, and today's Tweet by Rubin is clearly a direct attempt to counter analysts numbers, and steer public perception to the contrary.

But perhaps there is more than just a twinge of fear going on at the can-do-no-wrong Google headquarters. Perhaps they see the two shoes that are about to drop, and they have no defense for it.

The first is Apple's iOS 5 and iCloud technology which will fall out of the sky and into our mobile hands this fall. It is all but a given that a new iPhone will accompany this launch, and perhaps an iPad 3 and new iPod touch. Consider this Apple's fall/winter assult with all-iOS devices.

The launch will give Apple a massive boost in share, and if Verizon and AT&T numbers are any indication of what will happen to Android deployments in the U.S. once Sprint and T-Mobile join the fray, Android will be looking at a precipitous fall.

The second shoe is HP diving into the market late summer — en mass. HP has massive channel control and wide acceptance by consumers. Their webOS is nothing to laugh at, and hearing how HP is set to ship webOS on PC's in 2012, this is not some small venture. HP is setting out to build an all vertical solution like Apple, dumping Microsoft as they can along the way. HP is going to sell webOS devices, gaining instant access to the mobile market.

But HP mobile sales are not likely to chew into Apple's share. Rather, Android is going to be the huge victim of HP's new vertical ecosystem, and Google knows this. The only thing Google seems capable of lobbing out to the market, with no verification abilities available, is "activation" numbers via Tweets. Something tells me that by mid-2012, Apple will be shipping iOS devices in massive volumes, and HP will be picking up share rapidly, and analysts will be reporting this information in droves. Meanwhile, Rubin of Google will be Tweeting us dubious activation figures... Let the Apple – HP sandwich begin.

Related Articles:

• Part I: iOS vs Android – This is no Mac vs PC war
• Part II iOS vs Android – This is no Mac vs PC war
• iOS vs Android: It isn't the Mac vs Windows War Stupid
• Android Tablet Issues vs iPad 2

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